Enbridge Pumps the Brakes on Mainline Expansion

Enbridge delayed a second phase of its Mainline pipeline expansion after shippers held off on new capacity commitments.

12 Aug 2026

Enbridge has postponed a second phase of its Mainline pipeline expansion, one of six major projects proposed to move Canadian oil to export markets, after customers failed to commit to the capacity increases needed to justify it. Disclosed August 1, the decision highlights a widening gap between how fast companies want to build pipelines and how willing oil sands producers actually are to grow production to fill them.

On a conference call, Enbridge's executive vice president for liquids pipelines, Colin Gruending, described producers as behaving with discipline, adding that shipper commitments would likely come, just on a slower timeline than pipeline companies had hoped. Chief executive Greg Ebel said Enbridge will instead focus first on two smaller projects: the 100,000 bpd Flanagan South Expansion and the 50,000 bpd Southern Access Extension, both of which add capacity to secondary pipelines connecting to the Mainline in Illinois.

That caution looks stark next to the scale of expansion currently on the table. At least six pipeline projects are underway or proposed across Canada, and if all were built, the country's export pipeline capacity would grow by roughly 45 percent by 2035, according to industry estimates. Canadian oil output rose four percent in 2025 to a record 5.35 million barrels a day, with most analysts expecting similar growth this year, yet filling the full slate of proposed capacity would require output to climb more than a third by 2034, nearly doubling the industry's recent pace.

Both Suncor and Canadian Natural Resources have said this month they are not yet ready to speed up production plans, citing lingering uncertainty around climate policy and long-term global demand. For pipeline operators, pausing rather than pushing forward signals a preference for matching capital spending to confirmed demand. With Trans Mountain nearing full use and other export projects moving through review, the coming months will show whether producer caution eases or the wider wave of pipeline proposals ends up trimmed to fit a more conservative outlook.